Author: Mariya Mansurova, Analyst & developer in Yandex.Metrics team. Translated by Ivan Zakharov, ML enthusiast.

This material is subject to the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons CC BY-NC-SA 4.0 license. Free use is permitted for any non-commercial purpose.

**Same assignment as a Kaggle Kernel + solution.**

**Fill cells marked with "Your code here" and submit your answers to the questions through the web form.**

In [1]:

```
import os
import warnings
warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
from plotly import __version__
from plotly.offline import download_plotlyjs, init_notebook_mode, plot, iplot
from plotly import graph_objs as go
import requests
print(__version__) # need 1.9.0 or greater
init_notebook_mode(connected = True)
def plotly_df(df, title = ''):
data = []
for column in df.columns:
trace = go.Scatter(
x = df.index,
y = df[column],
mode = 'lines',
name = column
)
data.append(trace)
layout = dict(title = title)
fig = dict(data = data, layout = layout)
iplot(fig, show_link=False)
```

In [2]:

```
df = pd.read_csv('../../data/wiki_machine_learning.csv', sep = ' ')
df = df[df['count'] != 0]
df.head()
```

Out[2]:

In [3]:

```
df.shape
```

Out[3]:

We will train at first 5 months and predict the number of trips for June.

In [4]:

```
df.date = pd.to_datetime(df.date)
```

In [5]:

```
plotly_df(df.set_index('date')[['count']])
```

In [6]:

```
from fbprophet import Prophet
```

In [7]:

```
predictions = 30
df = df[['date', 'count']]
df.columns = ['ds', 'y']
df.tail()
```

Out[7]:

**Question 1:** What is the prediction of the number of views of the wiki page on January 20? Round to the nearest integer.

- 4947
- 3426
- 5229
- 2744

In [8]:

```
# You code here
```

Estimate the quality of the prediction with the last 30 points.

In [9]:

```
# You code here
```

**Question 2: What is MAPE equal to?**

- 34.5
- 42.42
- 5.39
- 65.91

**Question 3: What is MAE equal to?**

- 355
- 4007
- 600
- 903

In [10]:

```
%matplotlib inline
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from scipy import stats
import statsmodels.api as sm
plt.rcParams['figure.figsize'] = (15, 10)
```

**Question 4: Let's verify the stationarity of the series using the Dickey-Fuller test. Is the series stationary? What is the p-value?**

- Series is stationary, p_value = 0.107
- Series is not stationary, p_value = 0.107
- Series is stationary, p_value = 0.001
- Series is not stationary, p_value = 0.001

In [11]:

```
# You code here
```

**Next, we turn to the construction of the SARIMAX model ( sm.tsa.statespace.SARIMAX). Question 5: What parameters are the best for the model according to the AIC criterion?**

- D = 1, d = 0, Q = 0, q = 2, P = 3, p = 1
- D = 2, d = 1, Q = 1, q = 2, P = 3, p = 1
- D = 1, d = 1, Q = 1, q = 2, P = 3, p = 1
- D = 0, d = 0, Q = 0, q = 2, P = 3, p = 1

In [12]:

```
# You code here
```