IS608 Project -- Sreejaya Vasudevannair

Project Title: US Motor Vehicle Fatality Analysis

The goal of this project is to create choropleth map of US Motor Vehicle Fatality on US State level. The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration(NHTSA) has a dataset called Fatality Reporting System(FARS) to record every fatal traffic crash in the US. FARS is a nationwide census providing NHTSA, Congress and the American public yearly data regarding fatal injuries suffered in motor vehicle traffic crashes. Collected data include

  1. Crash characteristics
  2. Vehicle characteristics
  3. Person characteristics
  4. Weather and time of the day.

Data Source

Download Raw Data from FTP Site and http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Trends/TrendsGeneral.aspx.

The files are saved as .dbf. I converted them to comma delimited vectors(CSV).

The project provide a general idea on the Fatal Traffic crashes in US.

%matplotlib inline import numpy as np from numpy import * import random import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import pandas as pd

import plotly from plotly.graph_objs import Scatter, Layout import plotly.plotly as py import plotly.graph_objs as go

Fatality trend from 1994 to 2014

In [55]:
#df=pd.read_csv('C:/DataAnalytics/MSDASemester3/608/Project/Data_proj/CSV/USAFatalCrashes1994_2014.csv')
df=pd.read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/srajeev1/IS608Project/master/data/USAFatalCrashes1994_2014.csv')
plotly.offline.init_notebook_mode() # run at the start of every notebook
plotly.offline.iplot({
"data": [{
    "x": df.Year,
    "y": df.Total
}],
      
"layout": go.Layout(
    title='Total Crashes By Year',
    xaxis=dict(
        title='Year',
        titlefont=dict(
            family='Courier New, monospace',
            size=18,
            color='#7f7f7f'
        )
    ),
    yaxis=dict(
        title='Count',
        titlefont=dict(
            family='Courier New, monospace',
            size=18,
            color='#7f7f7f'
        )
    )
)
})

The Fatality Rate has declining from 2005.

Top 5 US States based of Traffic fatality Rates.

In [57]:
FatalitybySTATE_Data=pd.read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/srajeev1/IS608Project/master/data/USAFatalities_FatalityRatesbySTATE1994_2014.csv')
FatalitybySTATE_Data =FatalitybySTATE_Data[pd.notnull(FatalitybySTATE_Data['State'])]

#find the total fatality for 1994-2014
FatalitybySTATE_df =FatalitybySTATE_Data[FatalitybySTATE_Data.columns[0:23]]
FatalitybySTATE_df =FatalitybySTATE_df.drop(FatalitybySTATE_df.columns[1],axis=1)
FatalitybySTATE_df['Total']=FatalitybySTATE_df.sum(axis=1)
FatalitybySTATE_df=FatalitybySTATE_df.sort(['Total'],ascending=[0])

#top 5 States
FatalitybySTATE_df[0:1].drop(FatalitybySTATE_df.columns[0],axis=1)
FatalitybySTATE_dt=FatalitybySTATE_df[1:6].transpose()
FatalitybySTATE_dt=FatalitybySTATE_dt[1:22]
FatalitybySTATE_dt.columns=['California', 'Texas', 'Florida', 'Georgia', 'North Carolina']
FatalitybySTATE_dt.head(5)
C:\Anaconda2\lib\site-packages\ipykernel\__main__.py:8: FutureWarning:

sort(columns=....) is deprecated, use sort_values(by=.....)

Out[57]:
California Texas Florida Georgia North Carolina
1994 4232 3187 2687 1425 1431
1995 4192 3183 2805 1488 1448
1996 3989 3742 2753 1573 1494
1997 3688 3513 2785 1577 1483
1998 3494 3586 2825 1568 1596
In [17]:
py.sign_in('sreejaya', '18o7jxvx8l')

plots = FatalitybySTATE_dt.plot(subplots=False, figsize=(10, 4),)
plt.legend(loc='center left')

plt .show()

When we look at the top5 states we could not see any significant reduction in the traffic accidents.

Create choropleth map of the rate of accidents per State

In [ ]:
 
In [58]:
#Collected State-County Data from Bokeh sample Data. Joined this fime with accidents file to get the state names.
import plotly.plotly as py
USAccidents_Data=pd.read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/srajeev1/IS608Project/master/data/USAAccidents2014.csv')

#USAccidents_Data.head(10)

Counties=pd.read_csv('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/srajeev1/IS608Project/master/data/US_Counties.csv')
#Counties.head(10)

Accidents_county = pd.merge(left=USAccidents_Data,right=Counties,  left_on=['STATE','COUNTY'], right_on=['STATE num','COUNTY num'])

Accidents_countydf =Accidents_county[['State Abbr.','STATE','COUNTY','VE_TOTAL','LATITUDE','LONGITUD','State-County','Geographic Name']]
#Accidents_countydf.head(10)
Accidents_countydf1 =Accidents_county[['State Abbr.','VE_TOTAL']]
Accidents_countydf1['TotalAccidents'] =Accidents_countydf1.groupby(['State Abbr.'])['VE_TOTAL'].transform(np.sum)

Accidents_countydf1=Accidents_countydf1.drop_duplicates(['State Abbr.','TotalAccidents'])
Accidents_countydf1.head(50)

for col in Accidents_countydf1.columns:
    Accidents_countydf1[col] = Accidents_countydf1[col].astype(str)

scl = [[0.0, 'rgb(242,240,247)'],[0.2, 'rgb(218,218,235)'],[0.4, 'rgb(188,189,220)'],\
            [0.6, 'rgb(158,154,200)'],[0.8, 'rgb(117,107,177)'],[1.0, 'rgb(84,39,143)']]



data = [ dict(
        type='choropleth',
        colorscale = scl,
        autocolorscale = False,
        locations = Accidents_countydf1['State Abbr.'],
        z = Accidents_countydf1['TotalAccidents'].astype(float),
        locationmode = 'USA-states',
        text = Accidents_countydf1['State Abbr.'],
        marker = dict(
            line = dict (
                color = 'rgb(255,255,255)',
                width = 2
            )
        ),
        colorbar = dict(
            title = "US Traffic crashes"
        )
    ) ]

layout = dict(
        title = '2014 US Traffic Crashes By States)',
        geo = dict(
            scope='usa',
            projection=dict( type='albers usa' ),
            showlakes = True,
            lakecolor = 'rgb(255, 255, 255)',
        ),
    )
    
fig = dict( data=data, layout=layout )
py.iplot(fig, validate=False, filename='d3-2014 US Traffic Crashes By States')

url = py.plot( fig, filename='d3-2014 US Traffic Crashes By States' )
C:\Anaconda2\lib\site-packages\ipykernel\__main__.py:15: SettingWithCopyWarning:


A value is trying to be set on a copy of a slice from a DataFrame.
Try using .loc[row_indexer,col_indexer] = value instead

See the caveats in the documentation: http://pandas.pydata.org/pandas-docs/stable/indexing.html#indexing-view-versus-copy

In [59]:
from IPython.display import HTML
HTML('<iframe src=https://plot.ly/~sreejaya/12/_2014-us-traffic-crashes-by-states/ width=100% height=550></iframe>')
Out[59]:

What causes most of the accidents?

1. Alcohol

In [26]:
from bokeh.plotting import *
dfAlcohol=pd.read_csv('C:/DataAnalytics/MSDASemester3/608/Project/Data_proj/CSV/USAAlcohol1994-2014.csv')
dfAlcohol.head(5)
percents =dfAlcohol['Year']
In [60]:
import plotly.plotly as py
from plotly.graph_objs import *

fig = {
    'data': [
        {
            'labels': ['without Alcohol-21005','with Alcohol-11906'],
            'values': [21005,11906],
            'type': 'pie',
            'name': '2010-Total(32999)',
            'marker': {'colors': ['rgb(56, 75, 126)']},
            'domain': {'x': [0, .48],
                       'y': [0, .49]},
            'hoverinfo':'label+percent+name',
            'textinfo':'none'
        },
        {
            'labels': ['without Alcohol-20848','with Alcohol-11527'],
            'values': [20848,11527],
            'type': 'pie',
            'name': '2011-Total(32479)',
            'marker': {'colors': ['rgb(56, 75, 126)']},
            'domain': {'x': [.52, 1],
                       'y': [0, .49]},
            'hoverinfo':'label+percent+name',
            'textinfo':'none'
        },
        {
            'labels': ['without Alcohol-21563','with Alcohol-12118'],
            'values': [21563,12118],
            'type': 'pie',
            'name': '2012-Total(33782)',
            'marker': {'colors': ['rgb(56, 75, 126)']},
            'domain': {'x': [0, .48],
                       'y': [.51, 1]},
            'hoverinfo':'label+percent+name',
            'textinfo':'none'
        },
        {
            'labels': ['without Alcohol-20843','with Alcohol-11941'],
            'values': [20843,11941],
            'type': 'pie',
            'name': '2013-Total(32894)',
            'marker': {'colors': ['rgb(56, 75, 126)']},
             'domain': {'x': [.52, 1],
                       'y': [.51, 1]},
            'hoverinfo':'label+percent+name',
            'textinfo':'none'
        },
        {
            'labels': ['without Alcohol-20856','with Alcohol-11731'],
            'values': [20856,11731],
            'type': 'pie',
            'name': '2014-Total(32675)',
            'marker': {'colors': ['rgb(56, 75, 126)']},
            'domain': {'x': [2, .48],
                       'y': [2, .49]},
            'hoverinfo':'label+percent+name',
            'textinfo':'none'
        }
    ],
    'layout': {'title': '2010-2014 Alcohol Relatd Crashes ',
               'showlegend': True}
}

#fig = dict(data=data, layout=layout)

#py.iplot(fig, validate=False, filename='d3-Alcohol Related Accidents from 2010-2014')
url = py.plot(fig, filename='d3-Alcohol Related Accidents from 2010-2014')
In [61]:
from IPython.display import HTML
HTML('<iframe src=https://plot.ly/~sreejaya/10/_2010-2014-alcohol-relatd-crashes/ width=100% height=550></iframe>')
Out[61]:

More than 35% of accidents are Alcohol related. The rate has no change in years.

In [62]:
USAccidents_Data.WeatherVal.value_counts().plot(kind='bar')
Out[62]:
<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x21856278>

Weather has no significant impact on accidents.

3. Time of the day

In [63]:
USAccidents_Data.HOUR.value_counts().plot(kind='bar')
Out[63]:
<matplotlib.axes._subplots.AxesSubplot at 0x220a7a20>

This chart shows most of the accidents happen during or after sunset. So sun light also has an impact on accidents.

4. Day of the week

In [52]:
from IPython.display import HTML
HTML('<iframe src=http://htmlpreview.github.io/?http://github.com/srajeev1/IS608Project/blob/master/googlechart.html width=100% height=550></iframe>')
Out[52]:

It is clear from the above chart that week end's are more prone to accidents than regular week hours.

Conclusion:

From the above study I came up with the following conclusions.

  • There is a significant amount of reduction in crashes from 2006.
  • Alcohol related traffic accidents are still a huge issue
  • Most of the accidents happen in weekends
  • It is also interesting that most likely the accidents happen during or after sunset.

The study is not complete. There are a lot more variables to consider. I think including more aspects like hospital expenses, auto insurance expenses will be more interesting.

In [ ]: