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Controlling-Natural-Watersheds
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Notebook
Controlling Natural Watersheds
¶
Chapter 1.0 Introduction
¶
Chapter 2.0 The Challenge of Controlling Natural Watersheds
¶
2.1 Namakan and Rainy Lake Water Levels 1970-2014
¶
Initialization
Namakan Lake and Rainy Lake Levels
Rule Curve Performance 1970-1999
Frequency and Distribution of High Water Events
Stage Frequency for Rainy Lake Levels
Rule Curve Performance 2000-2014
Markdown Links
Voyageurs National Park
2.2 Rainy River Flows 1970-2014
¶
Initialize Notebook
Flow Data for Rainy River
Mean Flows, 1970-2000 vs 2000-2010
Distribution of Flowrates, 1970-2000 vs 2000-2010
Stage-Frequency for Upper Rainy River
Discharge Characteristics
Discharge Characteristics, 1970-2000 vs. 2000-2010
2.3 Changes to Rainy River Flows 1970-2010
¶
Initialize Notebook
Flow Data for Rainy River
Mean Flows, 1970-2000 vs 2000-2010
Distribution of Flowrates, 1970-2000 vs 2000-2010
Stage-Frequency for Upper Rainy River
Discharge Characteristics
Discharge Characteristics, 1970-2000 vs. 2000-2010
2.4 Flow Constrictions on Upper Rainy River
¶
2.5 State of Nature Flows
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Initialization
Distribution of Ungaged Inflows to Rainy River
Ungaged Inflows to Rainy River
Flow-Frequency for State-of-Nature Streams in the Rainy River Watershed
Annual flows on Rainy River
Chapter 3.0 Analysis and Design of Rule Curves
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3.1 Feasibility of Rainy Lake Rule Curves
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Initialization
Load Needed Rainy Lake Data
Rainy River Discharge Characteristics
3.2 Imputing the Effect of the 2000 Rule Curve Changes on Rainy River
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Import Rule Curves
Effects of Rule Curves on Rainy River Flows
Imputed Change in Flows to Rainy Rainy due to 2000 Rule Curve Change
Conclusions
3.3 Limits to Rule Curve Performance
¶
Import Rule Curves
1970 Rule Curve Analysis
Lake Area
2000 Rule Curve Analysis
Lake Area
Imputed Flowrate due to changes in level
3.4 Harmonizing Rule Curves to Seasonal Inflows
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3.5 Rule Curve Optimization
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Hydrological Model
Rule Curve Constraints
Flow Constraints
Note on Volumetric Units
Chapter 4.0 Estimation
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4.1 Estimating Rainy Lake Inflows 1971-2014
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Initialization
Direct Estimate using the Balance Equation
Constructing an Inflow Data Set for Rainy Lake
Estimating Rainy Lake Inflows with a Kalman Filter
Comparing Inflows in 1971-1999 to 2000-2010
Emergency Conditions
Modeling of Rainy Lake Inflows
Load Inflow Data
Descriptive Statistics
Fitting a Time Series Model
Analysis of Residuals
Simulation
Correlation of Precipitation with Lake Inflow
Chapter 5.0 Control
¶
5.1 Lumped Parameter Model for Lake Dynamics
¶
Stage-Volume Relationships
Rainy Lake
Stage-Discharge Relationships
Rainy Lake
5.2 Implementation of Rainy Lake Rule Curves with Feedback Control
¶
Initialization
Direct Estimate of Rainy Lake Inflows using the Balance Equation
Constructing a Simulation Data Set for Rainy Lake
Matlab/Simulink Model
Simulation Results
Markdown Figures
../images/RLSim_Model.svg
../images/RLSim_Results.png
5.3 Model Predictive Control
¶
Initialization
Load Data Sources
Utility Plotting Functions
Rule Curve
Historical Inflows
Historical Levels
Historical Volume
Historical Outflow
Simulation - Historical Rainy Lake Levels with All Gates Open
Extend Rule Curve over Historical Horizon
Integrating Control
Chapter 6.0 Adaptive Managment
¶
6.1 Ice Out Predictor for Rainy Lake
¶
Ice Out Descriptive Statistics
Significance of Ice Out
Load Data Sources
Historical Lake Inflows
Relationship of Ice Out to Summer High Water Events
Indicators of Change
Ice Out Trendline
Weather Data
ENSO Data
Annual Mean Wind Speed
Daily Temperatures
There are fewer cold days
There are more warm days
Snow Cover
Total Annual Precipitation has been Steady
Seasonal Precipitation Patterns
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Forecasting Ice Out
Verify Data Set
Feature Selection
Empirical Dimensionality Reduction
Predictor Fit - Elastic Net Regression with Cross-Validation
Reduced Feature Set
Reduced Feature Set - March 1st Estimator
ENSO ONI Data
Deprecated Cells
Look for the Best Calendar Window for Temperatures
Markdown Figures
Rainy Lake Ice Out
Markdown Links
here
GHCN (Global Historical Climatology Network) – Daily Documentation
6.2 Freshet Predictor for Rainy Lake
¶
Initialization
Load Python Modules
Rainy Lake Inflow Data Series
Total Annual Inflows by Year
Inflows by Day of Year
Ice Out Data Series
KINL Temperature Series
Identifying the Freshet
An 'Ice-Out' Index
Appendix A. Data Sources
¶
A.1 Water Survey of Canada HYDAT Database
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Initialization
Read HYDAT data
Locating Monitoring Stations in the Rainy River Watershed
Pickle Level Data to LEVELS
Pickle Flow Data to FLOWS
Markdown Figures
../figures/IJC/rl_basinmap_640.png
Markdown Links
HYDAT database
Water Survey of Canada (WSC)
HYDAT database
MDB Explorer
Rainy River drainage
A.2 Water Survey of Canada Usage
¶
Initialization
Google API Key
Read Cached Data Files
Mapping WSC Stations in the Rainy River Watershed
Viewing Station Data
Plotting Level Data
Plotting Flow Data
Example: Comparing Levels on Rainy and Namakan Lakes
Example: What was the highest water events on Rainy Lake?
Markdown Figures
../figures/IJC/rl_basinmap_640.png
Markdown Links
Rainy River drainage
A.3 Rainy Lake Water Levels
¶
Read Data from Water Survey of Canada
The Need for Data Reconciliation
Writing the Rainy Lake Level Data Series to a File
Statistical Properties of the Level Sensors
Tests for Stationarity
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test
Correlation Analysis
Test for Stationarity
Comparing First and Second Halves of the Data Set
Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic
Test for normality of the residuals.
qqplot
Fitting a Normal Distribution
Fitting a t-distribution.
Summary
A.4 Namakan Lake Water Levels
¶
Read Data from Water Survey of Canada
Overlap Period
Data Reconciliation
Writing the Namakan Lake Level Data Series to a File
A.5 Rainy River Flows
¶
Read Data from Water Survey of Canada
Data History
Data Reconciliation
Writing Rainy River Flow Data to a file
Recalibration
A.6 Namakan Lake Outflows
¶
Read Data
Data Reconciliation
A.7 USGS Surface Water Daily Data
¶
Use Cases
Example: Station Data
Example: Plotting level and flow information
Example: Comparing Levels on Rainy and Namakan Lakes
Example: Distribution of Flows on Rainy River
Example: Estimating Inflows to Rainy River
Example: Flow-Frequency Behaviors for State-of-Nature Streams in the Rainy River Watershed
Annual flows on Rainy River
Create
hydat.h5
Data Cache
Reading
hydat.h5
Data Cache
Markdown Links
daily data
National Water Information System
Initialization
05129115
05131500
05132000
Rainy River drainage
A.8 Stage-Volume Relationships for Rainy and Namakan Lakes
¶
Initialization
Stage-Volume Data - Thompson
Stage-Volume Data - Morin
Fitting the Stage-Volume Relationship
Stage-Area Relationships
Save Results
Sample Use Cases
Example: What is the Area of Rainy Lake at the Emergency High Water Level?
Example: How much water is in Rainy Lake between the EHW and AGO levels?
Example: How long to drain Rainy Lake from AGO to EHW levels?
Example: How much area is added to Rainy Lake between low and high water levels?
Markdown Links
key
key
A.9 Rule Curves for Rainy and Namakan Lakes
¶
Initializations
Plotting Functions
Definitions
1949 Rule Curves for Rainy and Namakan Lakes
1957 Rule Curves for Rainy and Namakan Lakes
1970 Rule Curves for Rainy and Namakan Lakes
2000 Rule Curves for Rainy and Namakan Lakes
Rainy Lake Rule Curve 2000
Graphical Comparison of 1970 and 2000 Rule Curves
Pickle Rule Curves to Data Files
Markdown Links
1970 Rule Curve
2001 Consolidated Order
Order of 1949
1957
1970
2000
A.10 Ice Out Dates
¶
Initialization
Load Python Modules
Rainy Lake
Kabetogoma Lake
Lake of the Woods
Markdown Links
Ice Out Dates
A.11 Global Historical Climatology Network
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Initialization
Load Python Modules
Read Precipitation Data Tables
Pickle KINL Precipitation
Temperature Data Set for International Falls, MN (KINL)
Cumulative Temperature Distributions, 1948-1981 versus 1981-2014
Distribution of Daily Lows by Month
Distribution of Daily HIghs by Month
Markdown Links
Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN)
GHCN to access historical records
Station KINL
A.12 Precipitation at International Falls 1970-2010
¶
Initialize Notebook
Load Precipitation Data for International Falls
Annual Precipitation
Distribution of Annual Precipitation
Monthly Precipitation
Distribution of Monthy Precipitation
Comparison of 1970-1999 to 2000-2010
Correlation of Precipitation and Rainy River Flow
A.13 ENSO
¶
Appendix B. Projects
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B.1 Solar Cycle
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B.2 Dashboard
¶
Markdown Figures
http://www.rainylakeonestop.com/netcam.jpg
Markdown Links
Webcam
Rainy River and Manitou Rapids
Rain