- Last year (month) PhD Student at Luxembourg University
- Work part time a fraud data scientist at CETREL a SIX Company
- Worked for +5 years as a data scientist at GE Money and Scotiabank
- Previously, six sigma intern at Dow Chemical
- Bachelor in Industrial Engineering and Master in Financial Engineering
- Organizer of Data Science Luxembourg and recently of Big Data Science Bog
- Sport addict, love to swim, play tennis, squash, and volleyball, among others.

[email protected] | |

http://github.com/albahnsen | |

http://linkedin.com/in/albahnsen | |

@albahnsen |

- Quick Intro to Credit Scoring
- Example of Credit Scoring
- Financial Evaluation of a Credit Scorecard
- Example-Dependent Classification
- CostCla Library
- Conclusion and Future Work

Just fund a bank | Just quit college |

Biggest Ponzi scheme | Now a Billionaire |

- Mitigate the impact of
**credit risk**and make more objective and accurate decisions

- Estimate the
**risk of a customer defaulting**his contracted financial obligation if a loan is granted, based on past experiences

Formally, a credit score is a statistical model that allows the estimation of the probability of a customer $i$ defaulting a contracted debt ($y_i=1$)

$$\hat p_i=P(y_i=1|\mathbf{x}_i)$$

Improve on the state of the art in credit scoring by predicting the probability that somebody will experience financial distress in the next two years.

In [1]:

```
from costcla.datasets import load_creditscoring1
data = load_creditscoring1()
```

In [2]:

```
print data.keys()
print 'Number of examples ', data.target.shape[0]
```

In [14]:

```
target = pd.DataFrame(pd.Series(data.target).value_counts(), columns=('Frequency',))
target['Percentage'] = target['Frequency'] / target['Frequency'].sum()
target.index = ['Negative (Good Customers)', 'Positive (Bad Customers)']
print target
```

In [6]:

```
pd.DataFrame(data.feature_names, columns=('Features',))
```

Out[6]:

Features | |
---|---|

0 | RevolvingUtilizationOfUnsecuredLines |

1 | age |

2 | NumberOfTime30-59DaysPastDueNotWorse |

3 | DebtRatio |

4 | MonthlyIncome |

5 | NumberOfOpenCreditLinesAndLoans |

6 | NumberOfTimes90DaysLate |

7 | NumberRealEstateLoansOrLines |

8 | NumberOfTime60-89DaysPastDueNotWorse |

9 | NumberOfDependents |

In [7]:

```
from sklearn.cross_validation import train_test_split
X_train, X_test, y_train, y_test, cost_mat_train, cost_mat_test = \
train_test_split(data.data, data.target, data.cost_mat)
```

In [8]:

```
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestClassifier
from sklearn.linear_model import LogisticRegression
from sklearn.tree import DecisionTreeClassifier
classifiers = {"RF": {"f": RandomForestClassifier()},
"DT": {"f": DecisionTreeClassifier()},
"LR": {"f": LogisticRegression()}}
# Fit the classifiers using the training dataset
for model in classifiers.keys():
classifiers[model]["f"].fit(X_train, y_train)
classifiers[model]["c"] = classifiers[model]["f"].predict(X_test)
classifiers[model]["p"] = classifiers[model]["f"].predict_proba(X_test)
classifiers[model]["p_train"] = classifiers[model]["f"].predict_proba(X_train)
```

In [10]:

```
from sklearn.metrics import f1_score, precision_score, recall_score, accuracy_score
measures = {"F1Score": f1_score, "Precision": precision_score,
"Recall": recall_score, "Accuracy": accuracy_score}
results = pd.DataFrame(columns=measures.keys())
for model in classifiers.keys():
results.loc[model] = [measures[measure](y_test, classifiers[model]["c"]) for measure in measures.keys()]
```

In [11]:

```
fig1()
```

- None of these measures takes into account the
**business and economical realities**that take place in credit scoring.

- Costs that the financial institution had incurred to acquire customers, or the
**expected profit**due to a particular client, are not considered in the evaluation of the different models.

- Typically, a credit risk model is evaluated using standard
**cost-insensitive measures**. - However, in practice, the cost associated with
**approving a bad customer**(False Negative) is quite different from the cost associated with**declining a good customer**(False Positive). - Furthermore, the costs are
**not constant**among customers.

Actual Positive ($y_i=1$) | Actual Negative ($y_i=0$) | |
---|---|---|

Pred. Positive ($c_i=1$) | $C_{TP_i}=0$ | $C_{FP_i}=r_i+C^a_{FP}$ |

Pred. Negative ($c_i=0$) | $C_{FN_i}=Cl_i \cdot L_{gd}$ | $C_{TN_i}=0$ |

Where:

- $C_{FN_i}$ = losses if the customer $i$ defaults
- $Cl_i$ is the credi line of customer $i$
- $L_{gd}$ is the loss given default. Percentage of loss over the total credit line when the customer defaulted

- $C_{FP_i}=r_i+C^a_{FP}$
- $r_i$ is the loss in profit by rejecting what would have been a good customer.
- $C^a_{FP}$ is related to the assumption that the financial institution will not keep the money of the declined customer idle, but instead it will give a loan to an alternative customer.

For more info see [Correa Bahnsen et al., 2014]

Assuming the database belong to an average European financial institution, we find the different parameters needed to calculate the cost measure

Parameter | Value |
---|---|

Interest rate ($int_r$) | 4.79% |

Cost of funds ($int_{cf}$) | 2.94% |

Term ($l$) in months | 24 |

Loss given default ($L_{gd}$) | 75% |

Times income ($q$) | 3 |

Maximum credit line ($Cl_{max}$) | 25,000 |

In [12]:

```
# The cost matrix is already calculated for the dataset
# cost_mat[C_FP,C_FN,C_TP,C_TN]
print data.cost_mat[[10, 17, 50]]
```

[[ 1023.73054104 18750. 0. 0. ] [ 717.25781516 6749.25 0. 0. ] [ 866.65393177 12599.25 0. 0. ]]

The financial cost of using a classifier $f$ on $\mathcal{S}$ is calculated by

$$ Cost(f(\mathcal{S})) = \sum_{i=1}^N y_i(1-c_i)C_{FN_i} + (1-y_i)c_i C_{FP_i}.$$

Then the financial savings are defined as the cost of the algorithm versus the cost of using no algorithm at all.

$$ Savings(f(\mathcal{S})) = \frac{ Cost_l(\mathcal{S}) - Cost(f(\mathcal{S}))} {Cost_l(\mathcal{S})},$$

where $Cost_l(\mathcal{S})$ is the cost of the costless class

In [13]:

```
# Calculation of the cost and savings
from costcla.metrics import savings_score
# Evaluate the savings for each model
results["Savings"] = np.zeros(results.shape[0])
for model in classifiers.keys():
results["Savings"].loc[model] = savings_score(y_test, classifiers[model]["c"], cost_mat_test)
```

In [14]:

```
fig2()
```

- There are significant differences in the results when evaluating a model using a traditional cost-insensitive measures

- ~17% of savings is very bad!

- Train models that take into account the different financial costs

In particular:

$$ R(c_i=0|\mathbf{x}_i)=C_{TN_i}(1-\hat p_i)+C_{FN_i} \cdot \hat p_i, $$ and $$ R(c_i=1|\mathbf{x}_i)=C_{TP_i} \cdot \hat p_i + C_{FP_i}(1- \hat p_i), $$

`costcla.models.BayesMinimumRiskClassifier(calibration=True)`

`fit(y_true_cal=None, y_prob_cal=None)`

- Parameters
**y_true_cal**: True class**y_prob_cal**: Predicted probabilities

`predict(y_prob,cost_mat)`

Parameters

**y_prob**: Predicted probabilities**cost_mat**: Cost matrix of the classification problem.

Returns

**y_pred**: Predicted class

In [15]:

```
from costcla.models import BayesMinimumRiskClassifier
ci_models = classifiers.keys()
for model in ci_models:
classifiers[model+"-BMR"] = {"f": BayesMinimumRiskClassifier()}
# Fit
classifiers[model+"-BMR"]["f"].fit(y_test, classifiers[model]["p"])
# Calibration must be made in a validation set
# Predict
classifiers[model+"-BMR"]["c"] = classifiers[model+"-BMR"]["f"].predict(classifiers[model]["p"], cost_mat_test)
```

In [16]:

```
fig2()
```

- Bayes Minimum Risk increases the savings by using a cost-insensitive method and then introducing the costs
- Why not introduce the costs during the estimation of the methods?

A a new cost-based impurity measure taking into account the costs when all the examples in a leaf

`costcla.models.CostSensitiveDecisionTreeClassifier(criterion='direct_cost', criterion_weight=False, pruned=True)`

Ensemble of CSDT

`costcla.models.CostSensitiveRandomPatchesClassifier(n_estimators=10, max_samples=0.5, max_features=0.5,combination='majority_voting)`

In [24]:

```
from costcla.models import CostSensitiveDecisionTreeClassifier
from costcla.models import CostSensitiveRandomPatchesClassifier
classifiers = {"CSDT": {"f": CostSensitiveDecisionTreeClassifier()},
"CSRP": {"f": CostSensitiveRandomPatchesClassifier()}}
# Fit the classifiers using the training dataset
for model in classifiers.keys():
classifiers[model]["f"].fit(X_train, y_train, cost_mat_train)
classifiers[model]["c"] = classifiers[model]["f"].predict(X_test)
```

In [25]:

```
fig2()
```

- Selecting models based on traditional statistics does not give the best results in terms of cost

- Models should be evaluated taking into account real financial costs of the application

- Algorithms should be developed to incorporate those financial costs

**CostCla**is a Python open source cost-sensitive classification library built on top of Scikit-learn, Pandas and Numpy.Source code, binaries and documentation are distributed under 3-Clause BSD license in the website http://albahnsen.com/CostSensitiveClassification/

Cost-proportionate over-sampling [Elkan, 2001]

SMOTE [Chawla et al., 2002]

Cost-proportionate rejection-sampling [Zadrozny et al., 2003]

Thresholding optimization [Sheng and Ling, 2006]

Bayes minimum risk [Correa Bahnsen et al., 2014a]

Cost-sensitive logistic regression [Correa Bahnsen et al., 2014b]

Cost-sensitive decision trees [Correa Bahnsen et al., 2015a]

Cost-sensitive ensemble methods: cost-sensitive bagging, cost-sensitive pasting, cost-sensitive random forest and cost-sensitive random patches [Correa Bahnsen et al., 2015c]

Credit Scoring1 - Kaggle credit competition [Data], cost matrix: [Correa Bahnsen et al., 2014]

Credit Scoring 2 - PAKDD2009 Credit [Data], cost matrix: [Correa Bahnsen et al., 2014a]

Direct Marketing - PAKDD2009 Credit [Data], cost matrix: [Correa Bahnsen et al., 2014b]

Churn Modeling, June 2015

- CSDT in Cython
- Cost-sensitive class-dependent algorithms
- Sampling algorithms
- Probability calibration (Only ROCCH)
- Compatibility with Python $\ge$ 3.4
- Other algorithms
- More databases

You find the presentation and the IPython Notebook here:

- http://nbviewer.ipython.org/format/slides/github/ albahnsen/CostSensitiveClassification/blob/ master/doc/tutorials/slides_edcs_credit_scoring.ipynb#/
- https://github.com/albahnsen/CostSensitiveClassification/ blob/master/doc/tutorials/slides_edcs_credit_scoring.ipynb

This slides are a short version of this tutorial: